For the first time since the beginning of the election season, poll numbers are showing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Fran Ulmer in the lead over Republican opponent Frank Murkowski. The GOP candidate's campaign said its polls show Murkowski far ahead of Ulmer.
The Ulmer poll - released Wednesday by Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore Research and Washington, D.C.,-based pollster Lake, Snell, Perry and Associates - put Ulmer ahead of Murkowski by almost 3 percentage points.
The poll, which was given to 500 people statewide in mid-September, put Ulmer at 46 percent, Murkowski at 43.3 percent, Republican Moderate Dawn Mendias at 6 percent, the Alaskan Independence Party's Don Wright at 1.7 percent, the Green Party's Diane Benson at 0.6 percent, Libertarian Billy Toien at 0.2 percent and 1.7 percent undecided. Mendias since has pulled out of the governor's race.
"Even though the poll shows us up, the way we review it we're neck and neck," said Jason Moore, a spokesman for the Ulmer campaign.
Moore said Ulmer has drawn voters by presenting detailed plans addressing the economy, education, health care and transportation.
"What our pollsters are saying is that it probably has to do with our strategy of coming out with fairly specific details," Moore said.
He said the polls reflect the public's desire to hear specifics on the issues, noting Murkowski's statement when questioned on his transportation proposal: "I'm not going to be pinned down on specifics because I don't have to," sent the wrong message to Alaskans.
Moore called Murkowski's transportation plan released earlier this month, which called for statewide highway and railroad construction projects costing hundreds of millions of dollars, a "pie-in-the-sky proposal."
Murkowski spokesman Dan Saddler questioned the new poll, noting Murkowski has shown double-digit leads over Ulmer up to September.
He said a poll by the Republican Party in early September showed Murkowski with 54 percent and Ulmer at 36 percent. Another 10 percent picked another candidate or were undecided. Those numbers reflect a different poll released in April by the Republican Party showing Murkowski ahead of Ulmer 51 to 36 percent.
Another poll released in July by a union supporting Ulmer showed her 7 points behind Murkowski, at 48 percent to 41 percent.
"The only explanation is possibly in the way the (Ulmer's most recent) poll was conducted or the questions asked or who paid for it - that kind of stuff," Saddler said. "We haven't seen the poll, haven't seen the questions, the methodology or anything about it except their claims of being in the lead, so it's pretty difficult to judge."
He said if voters were asked who they favored followed other questions crafted in a way to discredit Murkowski, then the poll is invalid. Saddler said he heard pollster Moore on an Anchorage radio station expressing his pleasure with the poll's outcome.
"I've heard Ivan Moore say he's thrilled to see it up, which portrays a lack of objectivity that may call into question the independence of his methodology and his poll results," Saddler said.
He added the new poll seems like a "desperate follow" to a series of attack ads he said Ulmer and her allies are running against Murkowski.
"I'd say she has not been ahead all campaign and so she is trying to hang on to some momentum for her fund-raising efforts or to keep the troops' morale up," Saddler said.
Ulmer campaign spokesman Jason Moore said voters are starting to get the message that Murkowski would serve Alaska better by staying in the U.S. Senate.
"I think it's a feeling that he's been in Washington, D.C., for 22 years and is not in touch with working families and kids getting an education," Moore said.
Timothy Inklebarger can be reached at timothyi@juneauempire.com.