A new opinion poll shows that the pending legislative-move initiative would have been defeated in a landslide last month.
Almost two out of three registered voters were against it, according to the results released this morning by the FRANK Committee.
The Fairbanks-based group, whose name stands for Fiscally Responsible Alaskans Needing Knowledge, was formed in 1977 to ensure that the public would know and vote on the costs of a capital or legislative move before it became effective.
"I think if voters understand this issue, they're going to vote no on it," said Walter De Vries, a political consultant from the University of North Carolina who is a longtime advisor to the FRANK Committee.
The FRANK poll differs dramatically from a recent poll conducted by Dittman Research of Anchorage. That's apparently because Dittman didn't screen for likely voters and didn't tell respondents that the ballot initiative would repeal the existing law requiring a commission to study the costs of the move and also requiring a second vote to approve the costs.
While Dittman found that 54 percent of his sample was in favor of moving legislative sessions to the Matanuska-Susitna Borough or to Anchorage, the FRANK poll shows 65 percent against the initiative as written.
Only 27 percent favored moving the Legislature without knowing the costs beforehand, and 8 percent weren't sure.
The initiative was opposed in every region of the state, although by razor-thin margins in Southcentral.
Support was strongest in Mat-Su, Talkeetna and Anchorage suburbs, at 40.5 percent, with 9.2 percent undecided. In the municipality of Anchorage, 36 percent were in favor and 13 percent undecided.
The sampling area described as Ketchikan/Juneau/Douglas had almost unanimous opposition, with 95.5 percent saying they would have voted against the initiative.
Those results were obtained after pollsters asked two questions concerning the cost of a move. About 84 percent of respondents said knowing costs beforehand is very or somewhat important.
De Vries said it wasn't a "push poll" a derogatory term alleging that pollsters set out to get a specific response because respondents were asked three dozen questions, including about two dozen on other subjects.
But initiative co-sponsor Mark Chryson said he was contacted for the poll and that it was biased. Chryson earlier thought he had participated in the Dittman survey, but changed his mind when the FRANK poll questions were described to him.
"They were pushing for it," he said. "That was not a valid poll because it was a push poll."
The FRANK poll, conducted May 17-24 by Independent Opinion Research & Communications Inc., Wilmington, N.C., drew its sample of 606 likely voters from Alaskans who have voted at least three times in the past five elections.
The poll found that 59 percent consider Anchorage an excellent or good location for the state capital, while only 42 percent say Juneau is. Forty-five percent said Mat-Su would be suitable for the capital.
Respondents also were asked to rank the most important problem in Alaska "that the state Legislature could do something about." The No. 1 response was the need to balance the budget, cited by 31.7 percent, followed by subsistence at 12.5 percent. Moving the capital was mentioned by only two people, and no one mentioned moving the Legislature.
Win Gruening, chairman of Juneau's Alaska Committee, said that the poll is no reason for complacency.
"I think the poll does show that people do respond to the fact that they do want to know the numbers," Gruening said. "(But) I don't think we can take anything for granted."
The FRANK Committee has no position on the merits of a capital or legislative move, said Chairman C.B. Bettisworth, a Fairbanks architect and original committee member. "I think it's up to the people of Alaska. They're the ones who get to decide."
But the group will publicize the cost issue through newspaper inserts and other means, Bettisworth said. There's about $40,000 left in the FRANK Committee bank account after paying for the $18,000 poll, he said. The group gets contributions from all over Alaska, but not from the municipalities of Juneau or Fairbanks, he said.